Calgary Sales Fell 15% in October and the Typical Home Barely Moved
Both of those are true, and the reason is that Calgary does not have one housing market right now — it has two moving in opposite directions. Semi-detached prices are up year over year. Apartments are down nearly 8%. And five days before the numbers landed, the Bank of Canada did something it had not done in over three years.
The headline number, and why it misleads
Calgary recorded 1,592 sales in October, down 15.3% from a year ago. That is a large drop, and it is the number most people will repeat.
Yet the benchmark price for a typical Calgary home finished at $564,200 — down just 0.4% from a year ago. Prices did not fall 15%. Sales did.
Fewer people bought, and the people who did paid roughly what they would have paid last October. Inventory actually fell — 6,173 homes, about 4.6% fewer than a year ago — which is why the overall market did not soften further. Months of supply sits at 3.88, still inside balanced territory.
Two markets, not one
This is the part that actually matters, and the citywide average buries it completely. Split the same month by property type and the story reverses depending on which home you own or want.
| October 2026 | Benchmark | vs last year | Months of supply | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semi-detached | $685,200 | +0.8% | 3.16 | Balanced |
| Detached | $735,100 | −0.7% | 3.34 | Balanced |
| Row / townhouse | $407,500 | −5.1% | 4.44 | Favours buyers |
| Apartment | $288,800 | −7.9% | 5.28 | Favours buyers |
| All residential | $564,200 | −0.4% | 3.88 | Balanced |
Semi-detached homes were the quiet outlier: the only property type up year over year, and the benchmark did not move a single dollar between September and October — $685,200 both months.
If you own a Calgary condo, it is worth about 8% less than a year ago. If you are buying one, that is the best news you will hear this year.
CREB®’s own chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie, put the cause plainly: “Much of the downward pressure on prices is occurring in the oversupplied higher-density segments of the market, while detached and semi-detached prices have remained more stable.” The condo and townhouse construction boom of the past few years landed; the detached supply never did.
Even “detached” is not one market
Narrow it one more level and the divergence holds. Same property type, same month, opposite directions depending on where in the city you look.
| Detached, by district | Benchmark | vs last year | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| City Centre | $992,500 | +3.3% | 3.52 |
| West | $988,400 | +3.2% | 2.51 |
| South | $705,700 | −0.6% | 3.07 |
| South East | $695,700 | −1.2% | 3.16 |
| North West | $765,500 | −2.5% | 2.96 |
| North | $635,700 | −3.5% | 3.75 |
| North East | $548,000 | −6.6% | 4.23 |
| East | $463,800 | −6.8% | 4.54 |
The Bank of Canada raised rates — and fixed mortgages did not follow
On October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.50%. That was its first increase in more than three years. The Bank pointed at energy prices: inflation has run near 3% since April and it expects about 3.5% by the end of the year.
Here is the part worth understanding, because it is counterintuitive and it decides what you actually pay.
| What moved | Change | Who feels it |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% → 2.50% | — |
| Prime rate at the banks | 4.45% → 4.70%, Oct 29 | Anyone in a variable mortgage or a line of credit |
| 5-year Government of Canada bond yield | 3.62% → 3.46% | Sets fixed mortgage pricing |
The Bank raised rates and the five-year bond yield fell. Fixed mortgage rates track bond yields, not the overnight rate. So if you are already in a variable mortgage, your payment went up the very next day. If you are shopping a five-year fixed, nothing got worse that week. As of November 3 the lowest insured five-year fixed rates sit around 4.39%–4.44%, roughly 20 basis points higher than a month ago — and that rise happened in September, before the hike, not because of it.
The Bank’s own outlook does expect “consumption growth is expected to moderate and housing to remain relatively weak.” That is the Bank’s projection, not a certainty, and it is worth reading alongside the fact that Calgary inventory is lower than a year ago.
Outside the city
The surrounding towns softened more than Calgary did on price, and most of them have more supply than the city does.
| Town | Benchmark | vs last year | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | $564,200 | −0.4% | 3.88 |
| Airdrie | $502,500 | −3.9% | 4.08 |
| Cochrane | $571,100 | −1.9% | 5.82 |
| Okotoks | $600,100 | −3.3% | 3.04 |
| Chestermere | $683,800 | −3.5% | 5.94 |
| High River | $490,900 | −3.4% | 2.48 |
| Strathmore | $437,900 | +1.4% | 6.18 |
Cochrane at 5.82 months and Chestermere at 5.94 are genuinely buyer-weighted markets right now. Strathmore was the only detached market in the entire region to post a year-over-year gain.
So what do you do with this
If you are buying a condo or townhouse: this is the most negotiating room the segment has offered in years — five-plus months of supply, and apartment prices nearly 8% below last October. The risk is honest and worth saying out loud: you are buying into a segment that has been falling, and I do not know when that stops. Nobody does.
If you are buying detached: ask about the district before you ask about the city. The West at 2.51 months and the East at 4.54 are not the same purchase, and a citywide average will not tell you which one you are in.
If you are selling: fewer buyers transacted this October than last, and homes took an average of 43 days to sell. Sellers accepted 97.3% of list price on average — so pricing close to the evidence still works, and pricing above it mostly buys time on market.
Want October’s numbers for your community?
Citywide figures average eight districts and four property types into one number that describes none of them. Tell me your community and I will send you what actually happened there.